Trump Claims Credit for the Largest One-Year Violent Crime Drop on Record — a Decline That Began Before He Took Office

FBI statistics released Aug. 14 showed violent crime fell 9.3 percent from 2024 and the murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate fell 18.1 percent, the largest year-to-year decreases since the bureau began its estimates in 1936. Speaking to law enforcement officers in Garden City, New York, Trump said the figures were “the best numbers anybody’s ever seen on crime” and that his administration “achieved the single largest reduction in violent crime in American history.” The White House has attributed the drop to a “Trump effect.”

Attribution is contested. Both the violent crime and murder rates have declined every year since spiking in 2022, including a 4.5 percent violent crime drop and a 14.9 percent murder decline in 2024, before Trump returned to office. Criminologists cited by news outlets caution that the causes are not well established.

The FBI report, introduced by Director Kash Patel, also recorded a 13.8 percent rise in reported assaults on law enforcement officers, a 10-year high. Patel wrote that preliminary 2026 data show further decreases.