United States Declines to Renew USMCA at Six-Year Review

On July 1, 2026 — the deadline for the six-year joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — the Trump administration declined to formally renew the pact for a new 16-year term. President Trump had said in June that he was 'not looking to renew' the deal he negotiated during his first term, citing U.S. trade deficits with both countries. Under the agreement's terms, declining to renew does not end it immediately; instead it shifts the treaty into annual joint-review cycles, with a possible expiration in 2036 if the parties do not later agree to extend it.

USMCA underpins deeply integrated North American supply chains across the auto, agriculture and energy sectors. Moving the treaty from a stable long-term framework into a posture of annual reviews and potential renegotiation introduces planning uncertainty for businesses that invest over long horizons, and it signals a shift toward bilateral leverage over Mexico and Canada rather than a unified trilateral bloc.

The pact remains in force and enters a period of annual reviews and possible amendment. Mexico, which did not impose retaliatory tariffs, is in talks with the White House about the agreement's future, with one discussed outcome being separate bilateral deals with each neighbor.