New York Fed Research Finds Tariffs Added 2.9 Points to Consumer Goods Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists found, in an Oct. 6, 2026, research post, that Trump's tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods price inflation by February 2026, and that goods prices would otherwise have fallen slightly over the same 12 months. The researchers estimate a 10% tariff on all imports raises consumer goods prices 5.6% at the retail level once distribution margins are factored in, with about two-thirds of the effect coming directly from higher import prices and one-third from higher costs passed through by domestic producers and competitors.

The finding, from career Federal Reserve Bank staff rather than a political or advocacy source, runs against administration claims that tariffs are paid by foreign exporters rather than domestic consumers, and offers a specific, data-based estimate of the price increases American shoppers have absorbed from the tariff program.

The authors forecast the tariff contribution to goods inflation easing to about 2% by August 2026 and toward zero within about a year of the tariffs taking effect, as price levels adjust to the new, higher baseline rather than continuing to climb.